世界与中国核电市场寿命周期探索  

Exploration of Market Life-cycle of Nuclear Power on the World and in China

作　　者：任德曦[1] 胡泊[1] 邹长城[1] 彭澎[1] 占红星[1] 

机构地区：[1]南华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2004年第10期37-42,共6页China Safety Science Journal

摘　　要：核电是高效、安全、清洁、经济的能源 ,但它和一切进入市场的产品一样 ,有其市场寿命周期。世界核电发展 5 0年 ,经历了市场寿命的投入期、成长期 ,现在处于成熟期 ;中国核电发展十多年 ,已进入成长期。笔者探索了世界与中国核电市场寿命分期 ,各期产生转换的动因 ,重点探讨了核电市场前景 ;同时认为 ,世界核电在未来的 2 0年左右 ,由于退役装机容量大于新增装机容量 ,可能出现阶段衰退 ,但会继续发展 ,进入新的寿命周期 ;而中国核电由于社会、经济快速发展 ,能源资源的不足 ,能源、电力结构调整与地区优化 ,环境与生态可持续发展等多方因素 ,仍需要不断发展 ,预测中国核电将有 6 0年以上的发展期。The nuclear power is the high-efficient, safe, clean and economic energy. However, same as the products entering the market, it also has its own market life-cycle. The nuclear power on the world has been developing for 50 years and has gone through the introduction stage, growth stage and now in the mature stage. The nuclear power in China has developed for more than 10 years, and has entered its growth stage. The market life-cycle of nuclear power on the world and in China is explored by stages. The causation of every stage turning point is probed into with emphasis on the market prospect. It is thought that the nuclear power on the world might appear a decline stage in the following 20 years, because the capacity of ex-service installations will be greater than the newly-installed capacity. Meanwhile, in China due to the fast economic and social development, the shortage of energy resources will last, energy and electricity component structure will be adjusted, area distribution will be optimized, and the environment and ecology will be kept in sustainable development, so the demand of nuclear power will undoubtedly increase. It could be predicted that the development stage of nuclear power in China will last more than 60 years.

关 键 词：中国 核电市场 世界 成长期 寿命周期 核电发展 电力结构调整 分期 左右 因素 

分 类 号：X21[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]