一次全区性较强降水空报的重大预报失误过程分析  

Analysis of Gravely Unsuccessful Forecasting for a Relatively Heavy Precipitation

作　　者：黎惠金 覃昌柳 韦江红 

机构地区：[1]广西来宾市气象台,来宾546100

出　　处：《气象》2005年第1期33-36,共4页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：通过对 2 0 0 4年广西入汛以来第一场全区性较强降水空报个例进行综合分析 ,结果表明 ,天气系统的一致快速东移 ,湿层浅薄 ,以及广西锋前明显的下沉运动等 ,是这次降水过程空报的主要原因。指出制作降水预报时综合运用预报指标、数值预报产品分析系统移速及降水产生必备物理量场条件的重要性。A first unsuccessful forecast for a relatively heavy precipitation in rainy season is synthetically analyzed. The result shows that the main reasons are the weather systems moved quickly eastward with shallow wet layer, and obvious downward movement in the foregoing of front in Guangxi. Consequently, it is very necessary to analysis the moving speed of the weather system and the obligatory physics condition of precipitation with forecast guide line and numerical forecast products.

关 键 词：强降水 移速 降水预报 降水过程 预报指标 物理量场 天气系统 重大 过程分析 报时 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.6