自适应修正预报模型  

Self adapting Amendment Forecasting Model

作　　者：刘志辉[1] 张国威[1] 刘玲瑞[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学地理系,新疆水文水资源局

出　　处：《水文》1995年第5期10-14,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：根据新疆内陆干旱区河流冰雪融水补给比重较大、径流变化较稳定的特点，在ＡＲＭＡ（ｐ，ｑ）模型和非平稳时序分析的乘积模型基础上，并考虑到影响径流形成的主要因子气温和降雨，对径流预报值进行修正，提出一个自适应修正预报模型。在新疆五条典型河流日径流过程的连续模拟计算和检验预报中，取得较满意的结果。表明该模型可适用于水文和气象资料缺乏、冰雪融水补给比重较大河流的实时径流预报。Based on the ARMA(p,q) model and the multiplier model of non一stationary time series analysis,and in consideration of amendment effects of temperature and precipitation on runoff a self-adapting amendmentforecasting model is derived for the real一time forecasting of daily runoff hydrograph in the rivers located in aridareas, fed with ice一snow meltwater in rich and being lack of hydrological and meteorological data。 This model hasbeen used for the continuous simulation of daily runoff hydrograph for the five typical rivers in Xinjiang. The satisfactory results prove it practicable。

关 键 词：径流预报 自适应预报 气温修正 预报模型 河流 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]