肿瘤潜隐期的二阶段模型(Ⅰ)-非齐性Markov模型  

Model for Latent Period of Cancer (Ⅰ) -Non-Homogeneous Markov Model

作　　者：方积乾[1] 伍超标[1] 毛建华[2] 周文清[3] 

机构地区：[1]中山医科大学,广州510089 [2]北京医科大学,北京100083 [3]贵阳医学院,贵阳550000

出　　处：《应用概率统计》1995年第2期205-212,共8页Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics

基　　金：国家"七五"攻关肿瘤研究基金;国家教委博土点基金资助

摘　　要：本文分别用时间离散的Markov链和时间连续的Markov过程研究了具有时变伴随变量的肿瘤潜隐期二阶段模型。直接将转移概率矩阵作乘法型参数化,利用极大似然和似然比对参数作估计和检验,作为实例,应用于江西省靖安县12年6轮宫颈癌筛查资料。A time-discrete Markov chain procedure and a time-continuous Markov process procedure were used to study a two-stage model with time-dependent covariates for latent period of cancer. The transition probability matrix was directly parameterized by multiplication, and maximum likelihood and likelihood ratio were adopted for parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. As an example, the model was applied to analyse a set of 12 year and 6 run screening data of cervical cancer in Jingan county, Jiangxi Province, China.

关 键 词：二阶段模型 肿瘤 潜伏期 马氏过程 马氏链 

分 类 号：R730.2[医药卫生—肿瘤] O211.62[医药卫生—临床医学]