基于降水—径流模型的中长期径流预测  

Precipitation-runoff model based mid-long term runoff forecast

作　　者：陶凤玲[1] 刘海波 王思茹[1] 李钊年[1] 倪三川[1] 李积花[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海大学,青海西宁810016 [2]长江电力三峡电厂运行部,湖北宜昌443133

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2012年第1期27-29,共3页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：江苏省高校省级重点实验室开放研究课题(K08016)

摘　　要：通过物理成因分析确定了降水与径流的相关性,并采用相关概率法,利用卡方检验证明黄河上游贵德站降水与径流相关关系显著。在此基础上,采用最小二乘支持向量机方法建立了降水—径流预测模型。计算结果表明,预测的十个点位值,除一个不满足流量距平值小于10%的要求以外,余者的预测流量值与多年平均值相比均小于10%,预测精度相对较好。Through the analysis made on the physical causation,the correlation between precipitation and runoff is determined herein,and furthermore,a significant correlation between precipitation and runoff is proved at Guide Hydrological Station on the Upper Yellow River with the related probabilistic approach through chi-square test.On this basis,a precipitation-runoff forecasting model is set up based on the least squares support vector machines.The calculation result shows that within the predicted values of ten points,all the predicted flow-rate values of them are less than 10% compared with the mean annual value concerned,except only one that cannot meet the requirement of less than 10% for the flow rate departure,therefore,a better prediction accuracy can be obtained as well.

关 键 词：中长期径流预报 相关概率法 预报因子 最小二乘支持向量机 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学]