上海城市人为灾害的灰色预测  

GREY FORECAST OF MAN-MADE URBAN CALAMITIES IN SHANGHAI

作　　者：孙振华[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学地理系

出　　处：《灾害学》1996年第2期19-22,共4页Journal of Catastrophology

摘　　要：应用灰色预测ＧＭ（１，１）模型，导出其响应函数，对上海市的火灾发灾频次作了实例预测。然后对预测模型作了检验，预测精度是２级，检验结论符合要求。对城市人为灾害的灰色预测，为防灾减灾的决策部署提供了依据。By the GM (1,1) model of Grey Forecast,its respondent function has been calculated. The fire frequency in Shanghai has been forecasted to be a practical example. It is in accordance with the fact on the demanded preciseness scope in terms of test.

关 键 词：城市 人为灾害 灰色预测 灰色模型 

分 类 号：X45[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]