交通冲突量的混沌预测  

Chaos Forecast for Traffic Conflict Flow

作　　者：唐阳山[1] 李江[1] 田育耕[2] 陈昕[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学交通学院,长春130022 [2]辽宁工学院汽车与交通学院,辽宁锦州121001

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2005年第6期646-648,共3页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50338030)

摘　　要：首先从混沌相空间重构着手简单介绍了混沌理论的基础,然后研究了混沌预测方法及其应用在交通冲突量预测中的原理和过程,最后利用混沌预测方法对具体的交叉口交通冲突量的预测实例进行了研究,并通过灰色误差检验方法对预测方法和结果进行了评价,表明交通冲突量混沌预测方法是交通冲突量预测的有效方法。The fundamentals of the chaos theory were introduced from the chaotic phase-space reconstruction, then the chaos forecasting method and its application in the traffic conflict flow forecast were studied. Then a case study of a crossroad traffic conflict flow by means of the chaos forecasting method was performed, and the forecasting method and results were evaluated by the gray error checking. The evaluated results show that the chaos forecasting method is effective in forecasting the traffic conflict flow.

关 键 词：交通运输安全工程 交通冲突 相空间重构 混沌判定 混沌预测 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]