中国的房价与地价:理论、实证和政策分析  

Land Price and Housing Price in China: A Theoretical & Empirical Study

作　　者：严金海[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学土地管理系

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2006年第1期17-26,共10页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目<中国房地产泡沫及预警系统研究>(项目批准号:02JA790055)的资助

摘　　要：本文采用四象限模型、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型等分析方法,从理论、实证和政策等方面对中国房价与地价关系以及市场结构和政府供地方式的转变对二者关系的影响进行系统、深入地研究,并对进一步规范房地产市场秩序,理顺地价和房价形成机制等提出政策建议。研究结果表明,短期内房价决定地价,长期内二者相互影响。与协议出让方式相比,土地招拍挂出让通过促进土地市场的买方竞争、降低房地产增量市场的垄断性,在显化土地价格的同时,降低了地价对房价的影响程度。The thesis analyses systematically and thoroughly the common relationship between land price and housing price and the impact of market structure and land policy on it using the tools of real estate asset and property markets model, Granger Casuality and Error Correction model. Some advices to improve the efficiency of land market and real estate market are also put forth. The thesis reaches some conclusions such as. in short run housing price determines land price while in long run both interact with each other; Compared with the selling means by reaching an agreement through consultations, the land bidding and auction selling policy helps to lower land price＇s influence on housing price by way of improving the competition in land and real estate market.

关 键 词：房价 地价 土地供应方式 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：F293.30[经济管理—国民经济]