后悔对消费选择倾向的动态影响研究  

The Dynamic Impact of Regret on Consumer Choice Intention

作　　者：陈荣[1] 贾建民[2] 何枫[3] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084 [2]香港中文大学工商管理学院 [3]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2005年第12期25-31,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70502003);国家杰出青年科学基金(70229001);香港政府资助委员会项目(CUHK4149/03)

摘　　要：在大多数消费者决策问题中,后悔被认为是影响消费者满意度、售后评价、转换/继续选择的一个重要决定因素.文献指出对产品表现的期望会影响消费者的满意度和选择,而目前还没有人研究当考虑期望不确定性时,后悔会如何影响消费者选择倾向.有鉴于此,文章应用贝叶斯动态更新模型研究当消费者对产品表现的期望看作分布函数时,后悔是如何影响消费选择的动态变化的.该分析模型得出的结论表明消费者购买意向的变化不仅取决于其是否对之前的购买决策感到后悔,而且还受到产品选项之间期望不确定性差异的影响.同时这种影响的强弱乃至方向还取决于消费者的风险偏好以及购买经历长短.In consumer decision making, regret is regarded as an important determinant for consumer satisfaction, postpurchase evaluation and shift- retain decision. Literature suggests that expected performance would influence satisfaction and purchase intention. Up to now, however, no study has been investigated on how regret could influence consumer choice intention when expected performance uncertainty is considered. A Bayesian dynamic model is set up to investigate how consumer choice probability is updated by experienced regret when consumer expectations are viewed as distributions. Based on our analytical model, consumer purchase intention is not only influenced by regret, it is also affected by the comparison in expected performance uncertainty across alternatives. In particular, the impact strength and direction from expected performance uncertainty are contingent on the consumer＇ s risk preference and length of purchase experience.

关 键 词：后悔 期望 贝叶斯更新模型 

分 类 号：F270.5[经济管理—企业管理]