用T42产品试作安徽12－36小时暴雨预报  

36-hours Torrential Rain Forecast with T42 Output in Anhui Province

作　　者：张明玉[1] 袁野[1] 杨金锡[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省气象台

出　　处：《气象》1996年第1期46-48,37,共4页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：采用逐步回归和三级判别方案，以Ｔ４２４８小时预报资料代替实况诊断量作汛期安徽分区暴雨预报。通过１９９３年和１９９４年试验结果表明：（１）两方案预报暴雨的ＣＳＩ评分为０．３０—０．７１，对省级分区暴雨预报有一定的参考价值；（２）逐步回归方案的预报效果优于三级判别；（３）丰梅年Ｔ４２模式的预报效果好干枯梅年。The sectional torrential rain forecast in Anhui province was discussed during flood period with the application of the step wise regression and triple discriminatory with T42 predicting data of 48 hours instead of the real-time diagnosis. This test was conducted during 1993-1994. Its results show that (1) the CSI of the torrential rain prediction was from 0. 30 to0' 71,both methods could be used in the torrential rain forecast in Anhui; (2) the predictingeffect of the regression was better than discriminatory; (3)the predicting effect in surplusMei-yu rainfall was better than that in deficient Mei-yu years.

关 键 词：T42产品 逐步回归 暴雨预报 降水预报 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]