优化组合预测的设计与分析  

The Design and Analysis for Optimized Combination Prediction

作　　者：王翠茹[1] 杜鹃[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学,河北保定071003

出　　处：《东北电力技术》2006年第6期5-7,23,共4页Northeast Electric Power Technology

摘　　要：阐述了组合预测方法的基本原理,并从理论上论证了组合预测方法相对于单一预测模型的优越性。针对以往的组合预测模型最优权重不能保证非负性的问题,提出了一种新的基于前向神经网络模型的最优权重确定方法,并引入了神经网络优选组合预测模型。通过分析和比较,此模型具有很强的自适应性和较高的预测精度。This paper elaborates on the principles of combination prediction, and it demonstrates the superiority of combination prediction to single prediction model. A new optimization weight method based on feed forward neural network is proposed here against the fact that former combination prediction model cant not guarantee the negative weight, and at the same time it introduces the optimization combination model for neural network. By analysis and comparison, this model has a strong self-adaptability and high prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：负荷预测 优选组合预测模型 前向神经网络 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]