基于模糊综合评判的动态路径行程时间预测模型  

The Prediction Model of Dynamic Road Running Time Based on FCE

作　　者：张文胜[1] 殷倩[1] 吴立新[1] 徐磊[1] 臧志刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学3S与沉陷工程研究所

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2006年第4期25-27,51,共4页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：石家庄市科技攻关基金(03513305A)

摘　　要：针对城市交通路网的复杂性和不确定性,提出一种基于模糊综合评判的动态行程时间预测模型,将总行程时间分为行驶时间和交通延误时间两部分,分别介绍这两部分时间的预测模型,并利用该模型对一组模拟道路信息和路况信息进行实际预测,对预测结果进行比较和分析。研究表明该模型算法简捷实用,预测结果精度较高。Based on the complexity and uncertainty of city traffic net, the author presents a prediction model of dynamic travel time on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Firstly the prediction model of total travel time, running time and traffic delaying time are introduced in this paper. Secondly the author practically predicts a battery of road and traffic information with this model,compares and analyses the prediction result. Not only the algorithm of this model is precise and practical, but also the result of the prediction is of high precision.

关 键 词：行程时间预测 模糊综合评判 交通延误 出行速度预测 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]