环境承载力约束条件下城市最大乘用车保有量预测  

Forecast on Maximum Car Ownership with Constraint of Environmental Capacity in Urban

作　　者：杨忠振[1] 苗国强[1] 冯涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通工程与物流学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]广岛大学大学院国际协力研究科

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2006年第6期92-96,101,共6页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50422282)

摘　　要：以城市环境承载力为约束条件预测城市内可容纳的最大乘用车保有量。预测模型是一个双层优化问题,其中上层是环境承载力约束下的最大乘用车保有量模型,以交通小区的乘用车保有量之和最大为目标函数,以各路段的环境承载力为约束条件;下层是道路网上的用户平衡分配模型,模拟乘用车出行者的路径选择行为,预测交通需求在道路网上的分布及行驶特征。开发了一个基于灵敏度分析的算法用于实现上下层模型间的反馈及同时求解两个优化问题。利用实例验证了模型及算法的有效性。A model which is a hi-level optimal problem and can forecast the maximum car ownership in urban with constraint of urban environmental capacity was developed. The upper level maximizes the car ownership subjected to the environmental capacity constraint, where the objective function is the maximum of the sum of zonal car population and constraints are environmental capacities on all links. The lower level assigns the OD traffic on road network with user equilibrium method, which simulates the behaviors of traveller path selection and forecasts distribution and running characteristics of traffic demand on road network. In order to realize the feedback between the two levels and solve two optimization problem simultaneously, an algorithm based on sensitivity analysis was developed and a numerical test was used to verify the effectiveness of model and algorithm.

关 键 词：交通工程 乘用车保有量 双重规划模型 交通环境承载力 交通量分配 灵敏度分析 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]