高填石路堤沉降的灰色优化-马尔柯夫预测模型  

Gray Optimizing-Markov Predicating Model on Settlement of High-enrockment Embankment

作　　者：赵明华[1] 曾广冼[1] 向臻峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学岩土工程研究所,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2006年第11期19-22,共4页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：交通部西部交通建设科技资助项目(200231800021)

摘　　要：高填石路堤的沉降变形包括填石体施工期的沉降变形和工后沉降变形。在灰色理论的基础上,建立高填石路堤沉降的等步长灰色微分方程,采用优化理论,建立误差目标函数,利用最小二乘法,求得微分方程的系统参数,并引入Markov原理,利用一步转移矩阵预测高填石路堤的沉降发展规律。某高填石路堤实测结果分析表明,灰色优化-马尔柯夫模型比常规的GM(1,1)预测模型预测精度有较大的提高。Settlement of high-enrockment embankment including the settlement of the enrockment embankment during and after the construction is analyzed and forecasted based on the gray theory, with an equal step length gray differential equation to describe the settlement in high-enrockment embankment and error objective function based on the optimizing theory combined with the least square method to obtain the system parameter of the differential equation, as well as Markov theory and one-step transfer matrix used to predicate the settlement development regularity of high-enrockment embankment .The real measurement results of some high-enrockment embankment analysis show that, the Gray optimizing-Markov model can improve the predication accuracy greatly comparing to the conventional GM （1, 1） model.

关 键 词：高填石路堤 沉降 预测模型 灰色理论 马尔柯夫模型 

分 类 号：U416.12[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] TU441.6[建筑科学—岩土工程]