基于灰色预测模型的公路运输量预测  

Amount Forecast of Highway Transportation Based on Grey Model Theory

作　　者：边浩毅[1] 王怡民[2] 李百川[1] 朱小平[2] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学汽车学院,陕西西安710064 [2]浙江交通职业技术学院机电系,浙江杭州311112

出　　处：《江南大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第6期745-748,共4页Joural of Jiangnan University (Natural Science Edition)　

基　　金：浙江省高校青年教师资助计划项目(浙教高科(2005)189号)

摘　　要：为了准确预测公路运输量,提高公路运输行业的管理水平,在运输业近年运量统计数据的基础上,利用灰色预测理论的GM(1,1)模型,给出了运用GM(1,1)模型进行预测的详细步骤,并以浙江省公路运输量预测为例进行了实际应用,对预测结果进行误差检验,表明预测结果具有较高的精度.To forecast the amount of highway transportation accurately, enhance the ability of management, this article puts forward the grey model of GM（1,1） and gives out the detailed steps to evaluate the amount of highway transportation based on the recent statistic data. The paper also uses the theory to testify the feasibility according to the transportation of Zhejiang Province. Furthermore, the paper does the error test work and shows that the enough precision is obtained.

关 键 词：公路运输量 GM(1 1)模型 预测 误差 精度 

分 类 号：O159[理学—数学] U491.1[理学—基础数学]