Weibull分布下只有一个失效数据的多层Bayes分析  

Hierarchical Bayes analysis of only one failure data under Weibull distribution

作　　者：张晓冉[1] 胡文杰[1] 夏茂辉[1] 温艳清[1] 

机构地区：[1]燕山大学理学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《燕山大学学报》2006年第6期480-486,共7页Journal of Yanshan University

摘　　要：针对在定时截尾试验中仅有一个失效发生情况,利用Weibull分布在>1,t<η(m-1/m)^(1/m)条件下的凸性,确定了失效概率=1,,的多层先验分布,并给出了其Bayes估计。然后用最小二乘法给出Weibull分布参数,的估计,进而得到Weibull分布可靠度估计。最后通过实例和随机模拟,讨论了文中值的选取问题,证明了文中方法的可行性。In this paper, only one failure censored data following Weibull distribution was studied. In view of convex characteristic ofWeibull distributionction function when parameters satisfy m〉1,t〈η（m-1/m）^1/mthe hierarchical prior distributions and Bayes estimatos of various failure probabilities, pj （j=il, ..., k）, were present, yd. Then the LS method was used to estimate the parameters of Weibull distribution and reliability of Weibull distribution was given. At last, the choice ofc values was discussed in the paper by an actual example and it＇s simulations, and the results show the method given in the paper is feasible.

关 键 词：WEIBULL分布 多层先验分布 BAYES估计 可靠度 凸性 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]