等维递补灰色校正模型的研究及应用  

Research and Application of Equivalent Dimensions Additional Grey Correct Model

作　　者：赵海青[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学应用数学系,河北保定071003

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2007年第1期97-99,共3页Operations Research and Management Science

摘　　要：灰色预测模型是中长期负荷预测的一种有效的方法,对E型规律发展的负荷有很好的拟合性,但对有转折点的S型增长趋势或增长处于饱和阶段的负荷进行预测误差较大。本文通过对历史数据的最优分段,提出了等维递补灰色校正模型,可以很好地解决这个问题。实例表明,此模型在中长期负荷预测中是适用的,尤其对于按S型曲线增长的情况,具有很高的预测精度。Grey prediction model is an effective forecast method of long-term load, and it is a very good fit to the load of e-type growth, but for the load of s-type growth or growth in the saturation stage, the error is larger. Based on the optimum segment of historical data, the equivalent dimensions additional grey correct model is proposed, so it is a good solution to this problem. The example shows that this model is applicable in the long-term load forecast, especially for the s-curve growth, and has a high forecast accuracy.

关 键 词：负荷预测 等维递补 最优分段 灰色校正模型 

分 类 号：TM731[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] O221.67[理学—运筹学与控制论]