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机构地区:[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [2]浙江大学地球科学系,浙江杭州310027
出 处:《自然灾害学报》2007年第2期1-6,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters
基 金:国家社会公益研究专项项目(2005DIA3J117)
摘 要:从海啸的物理和发生条件分析了中国海啸的危险性:渤海、黄海和东海发生本地海啸的可能性很小;中国东部沿海受来自太平洋方面海啸的影响也很小;对中国东南沿海有较大影响的海啸发源地主要在南方,它们是菲律宾西侧的大地震、印度尼西亚巽他海峡的火山喷发以及中国南海的大型海底滑坡。虽然中国的海岸受海啸影响的可能性不大,但对于浪高5 m的2级海啸而言,受到威胁的沿海地区的GDP占全国近1/4。从成灾的角度来看,小海啸大灾难的情况是有可能的。Tsunami disaster and its risk in China are analyzed from its physical property and occurring conditions. The probability of tsunami taking place in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea is small, and tsunami of Pacific Ocean has slight influence upon East coast of China. But tsunami generated southward could influence southeast coast of China widely. The potential sources of tsunami are large earthquakes in western Philippine, volcanic eruptions in Sunda Strait of Indonesia and large submarine landslides in the South China Sea. Although the possibility of tsunami impact on the coast of China are small, the magnitude of m = 2 of tsunami with wave height of 5 meters would threaten the coastal areas that contribute to 25% GDP of the whole China mainland. In the view of hazard, it is possible to have small tsunami accompanied with large disaster.
分 类 号:X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] R731.23[医药卫生—肿瘤]
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