基于变结构协整理论的中长期电力负荷预测模型  

A New Medium-and Long-term Load Forecasting Model Based on Variable Structure Cointegration Theory

作　　者：李翔[1] 高山[1] 陈昊[2] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学电气工程系,江苏省南京市210096 [2]南京供电公司,江苏省南京市210008

出　　处：《电网技术》2007年第9期48-52,共5页Power System Technology

摘　　要：提出了一种基于变结构协整理论的电力系统负荷预测建模新方法,所建模型反映了用电量和经济参数之间的长期静态和短期动态波动的均衡关系。提出了一种比较符合电力系统实际情况的时间序列突变点确定方法,并利用突变点信息提高了模型的预测精度,避免了传统的负荷预测中经常存在的伪回归问题。采用该方法对中国年度用电量和国内生产总值数据进行了预测分析,结果表明了该方法的有效性。The authors propose a new method for power system load forecasting modeling based on variable structure co-integration theory. The established model reflects the equilibrium relation of long-term static state and short-term dynamic fluctuation between electricity consumption and economic parameters. To determine the point of discontinuity in time series, an approach that comparatively coincides with actual situation of power system is put forward, and by use of the information of discontinuity point the forecasting accuracy of the model in improved, meanwhile the pseudo-regression that ever-presents in traditional load forecasting and affects the modeling can be avoided. Using the proposed method the forecasting and analysis of annual electricity consumption in China are carried out, and the results show that the proposed method is available.

关 键 词：负荷预测 参数变结构协整 伪回归 电力市场 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]