一个基于Bayes定理的委托——代理问题研究分析  

Study of a Principal-agent Problem on Bayes Theorem

作　　者：刘志刚[1] 张涛[2] 朱荣林[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学成人教育学院,上海200030 [2]上海交通大学安泰管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《佳木斯大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第3期411-413,共3页Journal of Jiamusi University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：高等学校博士点科研基金资助项目资助(20020248020)

摘　　要：针对信息不对称的委托—代理问题,提出了委托人对代理人所处的多种自然状态的观测间接获取信息的一种方法,并基于观测到的信息,利用Bayes定理,修正对自然状态先验分布的假设.通过对自然状态的多种分类分析,使之较好地吻合了委托-代理问题中成因多样性的实际情况;对非对称信息的委托-代理问题所进行的细致分析,有助于建立健全各行各业中的委托-代理机制,促进管理效率的提高.To research a class of principal- agent problem, this paper proposed a method to obtain information indirectly by means of observing agent in multi - state of nature, and on the basis of information observed, the assumption of prior probability of natural state through employing Bayes theorem was modified. Through analysis of multi - nature of state, this paper makes it perfectly match the actual situation of multi - cause about principal - agent problems. A detailed analysis of information - asymmetry principal - agent problems is conducive to establish and improve principal - agent mechanisms in all fields, so that the management efficiency was enhanced.

关 键 词：概率论与数理统计 委托-代理问题 贝氏分析 不对称信息 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学] F380[理学—数学]