我国人口总量的非参数预测模型  

Nonparametric Prediction Model on the Total Amount of Chinese Population

作　　者：张慧芳[1] 张德生[1] 武新乾[2] 侯青霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学理学院,陕西西安710054 [2]西北工业大学,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《延边大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第2期90-93,共4页Journal of Yanbian University（Natural Science Edition）

摘　　要：基于正交序列的非参数估计理论,建立了我国人口总量的非参数回归预测模型.并应用此模型对我国1952—2003年的人口总量和GDP总量进行了预测分析.结果表明:非参数回归模型优于线性回归模型,同时正交序列估计效果也优于k-近邻估计.The nonparametric regression prediction model of the total amount of Chinese population is established by the orthogonal sequence nonparametric estimation theory. The model is applied to predict the total amount of Chinese population, and the results show that nonparametric regression model is better than linear regression model, at the same time, the situation orthogonal sequence estimate is superior to k-near neighbour estimate for the dynamic relation between the total amount of Chinese population and national GDP.

关 键 词：非参数回归模型 正交序列估计 预测 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学] F22[理学—数学]