甘孜-玉树断裂带的近代地震与未来地震趋势估计  

RECENT EARTHQUAKES AND ASSESSMENT OF SEISMIC TENDENCY ON THE GANZI YUSHU FAULT ZONE

作　　者：周荣军[1] 闻学泽[1] 蔡长星 马声浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川省地震局

出　　处：《地震地质》1997年第2期115-124,共10页Seismology and Geology

基　　金：地震科学联合基金

摘　　要：通过对甘孜－玉树断裂带上近代地震的震级、震中位置和地震地表破裂的空间展布特征的研究，采用Ｎｉｓｈｅｎｋｏ和Ｂｕｌａｎｄ（１９８７）发展的“特征地震复发时间通用分布”概率模型，即“ＮＢ”模型，对甘孜－玉树断裂带各段落未来５０ａ内强震趋势进行了估计。根据研究结果识别出，未来５０ａ内本断裂带内马尼干戈断裂段具有强震复发的高危险性，当江断裂段强震复发的可能性也不能排除。We have studied the magnitude, epicentre of recent earthquakes, and spacial distribution of ground seismic ruptures on the Ganzi Yushu fault. We have estimated the tendency of major earthquakes for each segment of the Ganzi Yushu fault zone in the future 50 years by using the probability model of the general distribution for repeat time of characteristic earthquakes (Nishenko and Buland, 1987). Our results show that the Manigange segment has high risk of recurrence of large earthquakes in the future 50 years. The possibility of major event recurrence on the Dangjiang segment also exists. These estimates can provide a basis for the long and mid term earthquake prediction for this region.

关 键 词：同震位错 地震活动趋势 断裂带 地震 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学] P315.5[天文地球—固体地球物理学]