长江水质的评价和预测  

The Prediction and Apparition of the Quality of the Yangtze River

作　　者：张璐[1] 童永琴[1] 刘天洋[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京石油化工学院数理系,北京102617 [2]北京石油化工学院材料系,北京102617

出　　处：《北京石油化工学院学报》2007年第3期60-64,共5页Journal of Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology

摘　　要：运用模糊综合评价的方法及模糊数学中的最大隶属度原则评价长江沿岸各个观测点的水质,找出主要污染物的污染源。利用各个站点污染物浓度与该站点排污量和上游站点污水量之间的关系式,求出各个站点的排污量。用灰色理论GM(1,1)预测长江沿岸未来10年的污水排放量可知,在未来10年,若不对长江沿岸污水进行处理,长江水质将逐年恶化。By using Fuzzy appraisal,the water quality of some positions along the Yangtze River is appraised.The equation describing the relationship between the sewage concentration of one position and the sewage discharge quantities of the same position and the upriver position has been established,and the volume of sewage that each position discharges has been calculated.The volume of sewage that the positions along the Yangtze River discharge in the next ten years is predicted with GM（1,1） model of Grey system theory.

关 键 词：长江水质 模糊评价 灰色系统理论 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：X132[环境科学与工程—环境科学]