PSO-BP模型在城市用水量短期预测中的应用  

Application of PSO-BP Model in Short-Term Prediction of Urban Water Consumption

作　　者：王亮[1] 张宏伟[1] 岳琳[2] 刘星[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学环境工程系,天津300160 [2]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300072 [3]天津市城市规划设计研究院,天津300201

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2007年第9期165-170,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(5027806250578108)

摘　　要：为解决现有的城市用水量短期预测BP神经网络法对初始权值敏感、易陷入局部极小点和收敛速度慢等问题,通过对城市时用水量数据特征的分析,应用基于全局随机优化思想的粒子群优化(PSO)算法对BP网络的初始权值进行优化,建立了PSO-BP城市时用水量预测模型.在算例分析中与传统BP神经网络预测法进行对比,发现该方法的收敛速度明显提高,且平均预测精度提高了2%,在用水量短期预测中非常有效.In order to overcome the over-fitting problem and the local minima problem of the BP neural network method, the PSO-BP prediction model concerned on the hourly urban water consumption was developed. The model was based on the analysis of the characters of the hourly urban water consumption data and the particle swarm optimization （PSO） algorithms with the global stochastic optimization idea. The experimental results indicated that the average prediction precision increased by 2 per cent, compared to the traditional BP method. It was also shown that this model was faster in computation and had better generalization performance, which proved to be effective in shortterm prediction of urban water consumption.

关 键 词：城市用水量 短期负荷预测 粒子群优化 BP神经网络 预测模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] TU991.31[建筑科学—市政工程]