铜黄公路某滑坡安全监测及预测研究  

SAFETY MONITORING AND FORECASTING OF AN OLD LANDSLIDE SITE ON TONG-HUANG HIGHWAY

作　　者：郑良飞[1] 叶万军[2] 折学森[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学特殊地区公路工程教育部重点实验室,西安710064 [2]西安科技大学地质与环境工程系,西安710054

出　　处：《工程地质学报》2007年第5期684-688,共5页Journal of Engineering Geology

摘　　要：铜黄公路全长93.9km,其中遇到的各种滑坡30余处。为了研究这些滑坡的治理效果,对其变形与稳定进行了检测。以川口滑坡检测为例,运用灰色理论建立铜黄滑坡安全监控的GM(2,1)模型,其中非等时距位移序列采用拉格朗日插值函数转变为等时距序列。采用非等时距GM(2,1)和GM(1,1)模型对铜黄公路川口滑坡观测点进行安全预测。非等时距GM(2,1)模型预测滑坡变形精度总体较GM(1,1)模型高。由预测结果可见,治理后该滑坡是稳定的,预测结果和实际吻合良好。The GM （2,1） model for safety inspection and forecasting of a landsliding site is set up based on Gray theory. The anisochronous displacement is changed to the isochronous serial with Lagrange function. This model is used to the Chuang - Kou landslide observation site in Tong - Huang expressway. The results show that the GM （ 2, 1 ） model has higher forecasting precision than the GM （ 1, 1 ）. The study shows that the landslide is safe after completion of treatment. This result agrees well with the actual situation.

关 键 词：滑坡 安全监测 灰色预测 非等时距 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]