动机的概率意义——概率归并定理与Monty Hall问题的非贝叶斯解  

The Probability Meaning of Motivation: the Probability Lumping Theorem and Non-Bayes' Solution of the Monty Hall Problem

作　　者：余达祥[1] 胡竹菁[1] 邱琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学教育科学学院

出　　处：《心理科学》2007年第6期1463-1465,1438,共4页Journal of Psychological Science

摘　　要：本文探讨Monty Hall问题认知困惑的形成因素。通过对该问题数学结构的分析,导出一个与该问题的解密切相关的定理——概率归并定理;并依据该定理给出了Monty Hall问题的一种更直观的数学解。The study aimed at finding out the main factors that cause the Monty Hall dilemma. A mathematical theorem, Probability Lumping Theorem, was presented and proved on the basis of the axiom of probability and the mathematical structure of the Monty Hall problem. Compared with the solution based on Bayes＇s theorem, the Monty Hall problem can be solved easily and intuitively with this theorem.

关 键 词：MontyHall认知困惑 概率归并 非随机归并 

分 类 号：B842[哲学宗教—基础心理学]