北京市奥运期间气象灾害风险承受与控制能力分析  

Analysis on the Risk Tolerance and Control Ability of Meteorological Disaster in the Period of Beijing Olympic Game

作　　者：郭虎[1] 熊亚军[1] 扈海波[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市气象台,100089 [2]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所

出　　处：《气象》2008年第2期77-82,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：北京市优秀人才培养资助D类项目“高影响致灾天气对城市社会经济影响的评估模型研究”

摘　　要：针对北京市奥运会期间的7种主要气象灾害(雷电、冰雹、大风、高温、暴雨、大雾和霾灾害),建立了气象灾害风险承受能力与风险控制能力评价的指标体系。经过专家评分,获取7种气象灾害的评价指标所对应的分值。利用层次分析法,计算评价指标的权重系数。最后得到7种气象灾害评价指标的加权平均值作为其风险承受能力与风险控制能力系数。利用灾害模数、经济易损模数、生命易损模数3个指标进行北京市奥运期间18个区县空间易损度区划分析。结果表明:北京市奥运会期间,高温灾害和暴雨灾害的风险承受能力与风险控制能力最弱;雷电灾害和大雾灾害的承受与控制能力中等;冰雹灾害和霾灾害较强;大风灾害最强。易损度空间差异分析表明,城区(东城区、西城区、崇文区和宣武区)、朝阳区和海淀区为高易损性区域;丰台区、石景山区、房山区、昌平区、顺义区和大兴区为中易损性区域;门头沟区、通州区、平谷区、怀柔区、密云县和延庆县为低易损性区域。Seven mainly meteorological disasters might threaten 2008 Beijing Olympic Game, which are lightning, hailstone, gale, high temperature, rainstorm, fog and haze. A suit of index system is set up to analyze the ability of risk control and risk tolerance of the meteorological disaster in Beijing Olympic Game. The grade value of index system is given by experts, and the weight coefficients are calculated by using the analytical hierarchy process. The results show that it is most frangible when Beijing encounters high temperature disaster and rainstorm disaster. If lightning disaster and fog disaster occur, Beijing is medium frangible. When hailstorm disaster and haze disaster happen in Beijing, it is relatively frangible. Beijing is least frangible if haze disaster takes place. The analysis of vulnerability zoning shows that city region, Haidian district and Chaoyang district are the most frangible area. Fengtai district, Fangshan county, Shijingshan district, Changping district, Shunyi county and Daxing county belong to the moderate frangible area. The other sites belong to low frangible area.

关 键 词：气象灾害 风险承受能力与控制能力 层次分析法 易损度区划 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]