基于个案分析的气象灾害管理流程再造  

Process Reengineering of Meteorological Disasters Management Based on Case Analysis

作　　者：高燚[1] 胡玉蓉[2] 

机构地区：[1]海南省气象科学研究所南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南海口570203 [2]海南省气象局

出　　处：《中国软科学》2008年第2期11-15,39,共6页China Soft Science

摘　　要：随着经济社会的发展,全球气候的变化,人类活动和自然环境的相互作用日趋明显,有些情况下可能进一步加剧灾害的交织发生和相互影响,一些局部灾害若不及时控制,往往会迅速蔓延,酿成全局性危机。通过对强风造成翻船事故个案的时间序列分析,重新审视原有的气象灾害管理模式,针对暴露出的管理流程断层问题,希望通过流程再造来进一步改善和提升管理能力,以更好满足公众的安全需求,提高防灾减灾的效率。With the social development and the global climate change, the interaction is more obvious between the mankind＇ s activity and natural environment, Further, it aggravates the occurrence and influence of disasters. If some partial disasters can not be controlled in time, it would spread quickly and bring about the overall crisis. Based on the time series analysis, the disasters management system is examined again. Aimed at the interruption, we hope to develop and promote the management competence by workflow process regeneration. So the public demands acquire better satisfaction, the effectiveness can be expressed in promoting the efficiency of the hazard prevention and reduction.

关 键 词：流程再造 预警信号 灾害管理体制 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]