豫北地区降水的时间序列特性分析  

Time Sequence Characteristic Analysis of Precipitation in North Area of Henan Province

作　　者：王声锋[1] 张展羽[1] 段爱旺[2] 高阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电工程学院,南京210098 [2]中国农业科学院农田灌溉研究所,河南新乡453003

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2008年第3期13-16,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(“863”计划)资助项目(2006AA100209);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项基金(JBKY0032007018 CAAS)。

摘　　要：利用新乡市1971-2000年降水量的资料,对降水序列进行了分析。通过对年降水量序列的分析,发现可建立ARI MA（1,1,2）模型。月降水量序列呈P-Ⅲ分布,可用傅立叶级数很好地描述序列均值和标准差的变化;随机成分为零均值白噪声序列,呈偏态分布。本项目的目的是为豫北地区灌溉用水方案的制定与灌溉预报提供依据。According to the precipitation data from 1971 to 2000 in Northern area of Henan province, the precipitation time series data are analyzed and ARIMA（1,1,2） model is established to analyze the annual precipitation time series data. The results show that monthly precipitation time series showes P-Ⅲ distribution and the variation of mean value and standard deviations of monthly precipitation can be well described by using Fourier Series. The stochastic component of the monthly precipitation is zero-expect noise and consistent with the skewness distribution. The study result will provide base for the determination of irrigation schedule and irrigation forecast in North area of Herman province.

关 键 词：豫北地区 降水 时间序列模型 傅立叶级数 

分 类 号：S165.25[农业科学—农业气象学]