T213数值预报产品在白银市盛夏中雨以上降水中的释用技术  

Forecast of Precipitation over 10 mm Based on T213 Mathematical Forecast Products in Midsummer in Baiyin

作　　者：景怀玺 徐科展 石圆圆[1] 白虎志[2] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省白银市气象局,甘肃白银730900 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱气象》2008年第1期83-88,共6页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：甘肃省气象局资助"河西精细化和灾害性天气预报业务系统"(2007-05);白银市科学技术局"白银市地质气象灾害预报预警系统"(GK20062-3-011A)共同资助

摘　　要：基于MICAPS系统,利用T213数值预报格点资料、预报关键区34个站点的高空资料以及市内4县区不同时次的本站气压和日降水量资料,通过分析白银市中雨以上降水的天气特征,归纳出中雨以上降水的天气形势,并据此进行客观定量化分型;选取对白银市中雨以上降水具有明显物理意义的消空指标和预报因子,利用PP数值释用方法,建立了白银市盛夏中雨以上降水的短期预报模型。对2007年6～8月进行试报,预报准确率平均达66.7%,预报效果较好。Based on the MICAPS,T213 mathematical forecast products,aerological observations from 34 stations in forecast key area and pressure, precipitation data for different time in Baiyin,the weather patterns of precipitation over 10 mm in Baiyin are generalized by analyzing the synoptic character,and according to them an objective quantification grouping is made.Some indices and prediction factors with physical significance on precipitation over 10 mm are selected,and a short-period forecast model for precipitation over 10 mm is built by using the PP numerical interpretable and applied method.Finally,a forecast test from June to August in 2007 is made,it shows a excellent results that the average forecast accuracy reaches 66.7%.

关 键 词：T213 数值释用 降水预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]