考虑坡长因素的纵坡坡度对交通事故的影响分析  

Influences of Longitudinal Gradient on Traffic Accident Rate Considering Length of Downgrade

作　　者：袁伟[1] 付锐[1] 郭应时[1] 冯红运[1] 时间[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学汽车运输安全保障技术交通行业重点实验室,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2008年第5期130-135,共6页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：交通部西部交通建设科技项目(200431822333)

摘　　要：为了研究连续下坡道路的坡度、坡长与事故的关系,采集了5条典型连续下坡路段(总长度为76.68 km)的1 276起事故数据。从事故起数沿下坡方向的里程分布规律可以看出,事故集中分布在下坡路段的下半段,并且随着里程的积累而增加。对事故率与事故地点坡度和一定坡长的平均坡度分别进行线性和指数回归,对比回归结果和方程的样本决定系数R2,显示事故率与平均坡度的相关关系较事故率与地点坡度的相关关系更为显著。In order to study the effect of gradient and length of long and steep downgrade on the traffic accidents, the data of 1276 traffic accidents which occurred in 5 different typical downgrades （76.68 km in total length） were collected.According to the distribution of accident amount on the distance between the starting points of the downgrades and accidents spots, the following conclusions can be dawn that： （1） the traffic accidents concentrate on the latter half section of the downgrades; （2） the amount of accidents increases with the distance increases. Regressions to the accident rate with the gradient of downgrade of the spots and the mean gradient of given downgrade were made using linear and exponential functions separately, and the results of regressions and the coefficient of determination （ R2 ） were compared.The result reveals that the correlativity of the mean gradient of downgrade and the accident rate is more significant than that of corresponding gradient of downgrade of the spots and the accident rate.

关 键 词：交通工程 交通事故 回归分析 连续下坡 坡度 坡长 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]