基于随机过程的城市应急车辆数量配置模型  

The Scale-set Model of Emergency Vehicles Based on Random System

作　　者：刘杨[1] 马立 云美萍[3] 彭国雄[3] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院,上海200092 [2]上海市市政设计研究总院,上海200092 [3]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海200092

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2008年第5期46-48,共3页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(70631002)

摘　　要：针对城市中应急车辆的配置规模问题,运用随机过程理论,获得系统中空闲应急车辆数量期望值模型。在一定的事件需求下,空闲应急车辆数量期望值与应急车辆配置总量、平均的事件发生间隔时间成正比,与平均的事件救援时间成反比。克服了采用马尔可夫过程分析多用于应急车辆繁忙期以及布局研究的局限。以某市火灾统计数据为例,说明了模型的使用,为在宏观上合理确定城市应急车辆的配置规模提供理论依据。Aiming at the scale-set problem of emergency vehicles in cities, a model for the expectation value of idle emergency vehicles was built by applying random process theory. The model shows that, under a certain demand, the expectation value of idle emergency vehicles is proportional to the total number of emergency vehicles and the mean event-spaced time, and is inversely proportional to mean rescue time of event. This method overcomes the disadvantages of Markov Model that is only used in busy period and layout model of emergency vehicles. Finally, the application of this model was illustrated with the statistical data of fire in a city as an example. This study provides basis for setting the scale of emergency vehicles.

关 键 词：应急管理 配置数量 随机过程 应急车辆 期望值 

分 类 号：X913.1[环境科学与工程—安全科学]