基于Granger因果检验的地价与房价关系  

Granger Causality Test-Based Research on Inter-relationship Between Housing Price and Land Price

作　　者：张红[1] 吴璟[1] 孔沛[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第8期1148-1152,共5页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70673050)

摘　　要：运用Granger因果关系检验法,研究不同房地产市场发展阶段的地价与房价的互动关系.从地价与房价关系的作用机理出发,建立理论假设体系,以美国、日本、中国的时间序列数据为基础,进行实证研究.结果表明:在美国,房地产市场处于成熟、平稳的发展阶段,地价决定房价;在日本,房地产市场处于异常发展阶段,房价决定地价;在中国,房地产市场尚未达到稳定阶段,地价决定房价.因此,地价与房价的互动关系取决于房地产市场的发展阶段,不可一概而论.This study aims to investigate the inter-relationship between land price and housing price in different developing phases of real estate market on the basis of Granger causality test. Based on the inter-action mechanism of land price and housing price, a theoretical hypothesis system was set up and then the empirical studies were developed with the time serial data from US, Japan and China. The results indicate that in US where the real estate market is mature and steady, land price determines the housing price; in Japan where the real estate market is abnormal, housing price determines the land price; in China where the completion of real estate market is unredeemed, land price determines the housing price. Finally, a conclusion is drawn that the inter-relationship between land price and housing price depends on the developing of real estate market.

关 键 词：地价 房价 互动关系 GRANGER因果关系 实证研究 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]