变压器故障灰色Verhulst预测模型的研究  

Study on transformer fault prediction method based on non-equal-gap gray Verhulst model

作　　者：苑尚尊[1] 聂玲[1] 钟绍波[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆科技学院电子信息工程学院,重庆400042 [2]重庆大学,重庆400030

出　　处：《微计算机信息》2008年第30期236-237,共2页Control & Automation

摘　　要：针对变压器试验在时间上具有非等间隔的特点,对传统等间隔Verhulst灰色模型进行了改进,提出了基于非等间隔Verhulst灰色模型的变压器故障预测方法。建立了非等间隔Verhulst灰色预测模型,该模型不仅考虑了预测数列的非等间隔性,还从初始条件选择、背景值改造等方面对原有模型进行了改进,实例验证表明本文提出的方法具有较高的精度。Aiming at the non-equal-gap characteristics of the transformer experiment, the traditional equal-gap gray Verhulst model is improved to present the transformer fault prediction method based on non-equal-gap gray Verhulst model. The non-equal-gap gray Verhulst prediction model is established. In this model, the non-equal-gap characteristics are taken into account. Moreover, the traditional model is improved from the aspects of initial condition and background value. Finally, the example verifies the efficiency of the proposed method.

关 键 词：变压器 故障预测 灰色VERHULST模型 非等间隔 

分 类 号：TP273[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]