考虑需求预测不确定性的交通网络设计  

Transport network design under demand forecast uncertainty

作　　者：潘艳荣[1] 邓卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2008年第6期82-87,共6页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：十一五国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAJ18B03)

摘　　要：为分析需求预测不确定性对交通网络设计的影响,根据需求预测结果的不同类型,建立了适用于连续型需求的基于灵敏度分析的交通网络设计模型和适用于离散型需求的基于未来情形预测的交通网络设计模型。模型均由两项组成,前一项表示网络效益,后一项表示网络稳定性。给出了两类模型的构造过程,探讨了模型的求解方法与适用范围。计算结果表明:随着设计参数变小,网络效益变小,网络稳定性变大,进而得到不同的网络设计结果。可见,考虑需求不确定性的模型能准确地反映实际的交通网络设计目标。In order to analyze the influence of demand forecast uncertainty on transport network design, two kinds of models were established based on different forecast results, the one for continuous demand was transport network design model based on sensitivity analysis, and the other for discrete demand was transport network design model based on scenario forecast. There were two items in the models, the former was network benefit, and the latter was network stability. The establishment processes of the two models were put forward, and their calculation methods and applicable bounds were studied. Computation result shows that with the lessening of design parameter, traffic network benefit is smaller, traffic network stability is larger, and different network design results are got, so the models considering demand uncertainty can reflect the practical situations of traffic netwrok better. 3 tabs, 6 figs, 14 refs.

关 键 词：交通网络设计 需求不确定性 灵敏度分析 情形预测 

分 类 号：U491.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]