基于变权组合预测模型的临沂市GDP预测  

Forecast Mode Based on Composition of Variable Weights in Linyi’s GDP Forecast

作　　者：王成永[1] 刘红[2] 

机构地区：[1]临沂师范学院数学系,山东临沂276005 [2]临沂师范学院商学院,山东临沂276005

出　　处：《临沂师范学院学报》2008年第6期134-136,共3页Journal of Linyi Teachers' College

摘　　要：根据GM(1,1)模型和自回归模型的特点,建立了综合GM(1,1)模型和自回归模型的变权组合预测模型,并对临沂市GDP进行分析预测,与实际情况非常相符,具有较好的预测效果.According to characteristics of GM（1,1） model and gradually autoregressive model, the paper builds the forecast model of GM（1,1）and gradually autoregressive model based on the composition of the variable weights and applies this model in forecast of Linyi＇s GDP. The result indicates that this model has a better forecast effect.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 逐步自回归模型 GDP预测 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]