气候变化及人类活动对中国北方岩溶泉的影响——以山西柳林泉为例  

Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Karstic Springs in Northern China:A Case Study of the Liulin Springs

作　　者：郝永红[1] 王玮[2] 王国卿 杜欣[4] 朱宇恩[4] 王学萌 

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学水环境与水资源重点实验室,天津300387 [2]山西大学黄土高原研究所,太原030006 [3]山西吕梁市水资源管理办公室,山西离石033000 [4]山西大学环境与资源学院,太原030006 [5]山西省农业资源综合考察研究所,太原030006

出　　处：《地质学报》2009年第1期138-144,共7页Acta Geologica Sinica

基　　金：天津市科技发展计划项目(编号06YFSZSF05100);国家自然科学基金项目(编号NSFC-40572150);天津师范大学科研启动项目(编号5RL070);天津师范大学服务天津市和滨海新区专项科研计划(编号52LE24)联合资助成果

摘　　要：中国是岩溶最发育的国家之一，全球岩溶面积的1／4分布在中国。由于岩溶含水层对环境变化非常敏感，岩溶泉已经成为人们研究气候变化与人类活动对环境影响的最要信息载体。本文以中国北方具有代表性的柳林泉为研究对象，经过分析认为1957～1973年泉水流最基本上处于自然状态，因此，我们利用1973年前的泉水流量，建立了气候变化条件下泉水流量的灰色系统模型，将该模型外推，获得了1974～2005年气候变化条件下的泉水流量，与同期实测流量相比较，得到了人类活动对泉水流量衰减的贡献。结果表明，1974～2005年，气候变化对泉水流量衰减的贡献仪为人类活动对泉水流量衰减贡献量的8．1％～8．6％，人类活动对泉水流量的衰减起着主要作用。在人类活动对泉水流量的影响中，地下水开采量仅占到其中的20％～35％；其他因素包括水库的修建、跨区域地下水袭夺、矿坑排水、泉域内森林植被的破坏等等，他们对泉水流量衰减的贡献占到65％～80％。因此，传统的单纯以地下水开采量作为人类活动对泉水的影响足不合理的。China is one of the most karst well-developed countries, and one quarter of the world karst regions distributes in China. Karst groundwater is the main supply source for industry, agriculture, and living water in northern China. Discharging of karst springs in northern China, however, has been declining from 1950s. There are two reasons for attenuation, climate change and human activities. This paper focused on the effect of two factors on karst springs in northern China. The Liulin Springs, as a representative of karst springs in northern China, was selected as the study area. By analyzing the spring flow and groundwater development, it is found that the Liulin Springs were in natural conditions before 1973. Based on the flowing volumes of the springs from 1957 to 1973, this research constructed a grey system model of spring flowing under natural conditions, which was used to acquire a spring flowing volume from 1974 to 2005. By comparison of this figure with actual tested ones in the same period, the effect of human activities on spring flowing and decaying has been estimated. The result shows that from 1974 to 2005, the contribution of climate change to spring flow decaying accounts for only 8.1%-8.6% of total effect by human activities, suggesting that the latter plays a vital role in decay of spring flowing. Of all the human activities, groundwater development accounts for 20%-35%, while other factors such as over-exploitation of groundwater in vicinity areas, construction of reservoirs, ecosystem destruction, and mine drainage etc. account for 65%-80%. Therefore, it is unscientific that evaluation of spring flowing and decay is only and simply based on the exploitation amount of groundwater, which would lead us make the wrong decision to environment.

关 键 词：人类活动 气候变化 泉水流量衰减 灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]