月敏感负荷预测方法研究  

The methods research of monthly sensitive load forecasting

作　　者：卢毅[1] 汪燚春[1] 黄永高[1] 严晟[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学电气工程学院,南京210096

出　　处：《电力需求侧管理》2009年第1期17-19,共3页Power Demand Side Management

摘　　要：主要研究了敏感负荷领域中的相关问题,建立了敏感负荷预测模型,并在原季节指数预测方法的基础上,提出一种改进季节指数法用以预测月敏感负荷,与原预测方法相比,有效地提高了预测精度。根据江苏省实际负荷运行数据,对两种预测结果进行了比较。The relevant issues in the sensitive load field are introduced in this paper. By building up a sensitive load forecasting model and on the basis of the old seasonal index forecasting method, we bring forward an improved method. Compared to the old one, it is able to enhance the forecasting precision. At last, with the practical load data of Jiangsu province, we analyse and compare the two forecast results.

关 键 词：负荷预测 敏感负荷 基准负荷 季节指数 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]