城市用水量预测的混沌理论研究  

Study on urban daily water demand short-term forecasts based on chaos theory

作　　者：高金良[1] 常魁[2] WenyanWu 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所,哈尔滨150080 [2]哈尔滨工业大学市政环境工程学院,哈尔滨150090 [3]Faculty of Computing, Engineering and Technology, Staffordshired University, Beaconside, Staffordshired ST18 0DF

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第1期88-91,共4页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：黑龙江省青年基金项目(QC06C038);黑龙江省自然科学基金资助项目(重点ZJG003)

摘　　要：分析了混沌理论特征,利用城市用水量混沌特性,建立城市用水量短期预测模型,对城市用水量进行科学预测.利用历史数据信息,在相空间重构基础上对城市用水量时间序列进行分析,分析饱和嵌入维数、延迟时间和Lyapunov指数求解方法并对其进行计算,并以此为指导对城市用水量进行高精度预测.利用建立的模型对东北某市日用水量进行预测,结果表明基于混沌理论的城市用水量预测模型具有较高精度,对于受众多因素影响的城市用水量预测有良好的推广价值.城市用水量受众多因素影响,混沌理论为城市用水量预测提供了崭新思路.The characteristics of the chaos theory are analyzed in this paper, The urban daily water demand short-term forecasts model, which is for the scientific forecast of the urban daily water demand, is built based on the chaos theory. The time-series of urban daily water demand is analyzed on the basis of phase space reconstruction and the historical data of water demand is used. The saturated embedding dimension, delay time and lyapunov exponent aere solved. And they are used in urban water demand forecast. The urban daily water demand is taken by the forecasting model in a large city in the northeast china. As a result, the urban daily water demand short-term forecast model, which is affected by many factors, has a high precision and a good value.

关 键 词：城市日用水量 用水量预测 混沌理论 LYAPUNOV指数 饱和嵌入维数 

分 类 号：TU991[建筑科学—市政工程]