上海城市人为灾害与复合生态环境因子的灰色关联分析  

On the Grey Relationship Between Man-made Urban Calamities and Ecologic-environmental Factors in Shanghai

作　　者：孙振华[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学地理系,上海200234

出　　处：《上海师范大学学报（自然科学版）》1997年第3期64-71,共8页Journal of Shanghai Normal University(Natural Sciences)

摘　　要：城市人为灾害是个灰色系统．应用灰色系统理论，对上海城市人为灾害及其高发区与复合生态环境因子的关系，作灰色关联分析和加权关联分析．结论表明：城市人口文化素质对人为灾害影响程度最大，人口密度的影响程度次之，再依次有影响程度的为：道路干道密度、公共管线状况、房屋占地比率、绿被率等．这一结论对城市人为灾害的深入探索和研究，以及防灾减灾具有重要价值和意义．Man-made urban calamities in this article include the fire, the traffic accident, theunexpeted pollution, the waterpipe and gas pipe cracking, the cable breaking off, the buildingtoppling down, ect. Selected ecologic-environmental factors are the poplation density, theeducation standard, the main road density, the ratio of the area covered by buildings, the ratio ofafforested area, the condition of pipes and cables.Man-made urban calamities are of grey systems. Therefore, the theories of such systems areused in this paper in order to do some grey and weighted analysis concerning the relationshipbetween man-made urban calamities with their high incidence area and the factors of ecologicalenvironment in Shanghai. The research showed that the standard of education exerted greatestinfluence upon man-made calamities. Secondly, they were affected by the density 0f thepopulation, and then by the density of building area and afforestaed area successively.The result will be of great value and significance both in furthering the exploration and studyof man-made urban calamities and in takings precautions against them

关 键 词：城市人为灾害 复合生态环境因子 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]