生态数学模型在人口预测中的应用——以大庆市为例  

Application of Ecological Mathematical Models to Population Predication——Taking Daqing for Example

作　　者：王景伟[1] 韩毅强[1] 王海泽[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江八一农垦大学生命科学技术学院,黑龙江大庆163319

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2009年第4期30-34,共5页Safety and Environmental Engineering

摘　　要：运用线性回归模型、Logistic增长模型和灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,对黑龙江大庆市2008-2020年人口发展规模进行了预测,结果表明:3种模型在本案例中均能取得较好的效果;而灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的平均相对误差最小,故最终采用该预测模型,预测2010年大庆市人口数将达到284.27万人,2020年将达到325.74万人。With Linear Regression Model, Logistic Model and Grey Dynamic Model, this paper predicts the gross population in Daqing in the period of 2008--2020. The results show that all the three models have good effect. But Grey Dynamic Model is better than the other two due to its minimum average relative errors, so it is taken into use for the task. Prediction results show that the gross population of Daqing will reach 2. 8427 million in 2010 and 3.2574 million in 2020.

关 键 词：线性回归模型 LOGISTIC模型 灰色系统GM(1 1)模型 人口预测 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]