灰色马尔柯夫模型在陕西省苹果产量预测中的应用  

Application of grey Markov model on the prediction of apple yield in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：苏哲斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安文理学院数学系,陕西西安710065

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第7期135-139,共5页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(60603098);西安文理学院科研专项基金项目(KYC200722)

摘　　要：【目的】将灰色系统理论与马尔柯夫链相结合,建立灰色马尔柯夫预测模型,并对陕西省苹果产量进行预测,为指导苹果产业发展提供科学依据。【方法】首先建立陕西省1998-2007年苹果产量的GM（1,1）预测模型,确定出苹果产量的发展趋势和预测值,在此基础上应用马尔柯夫链理论对预测结果进行修正。【结果】2008年陕西苹果产量预测值为769.71万t,实例计算表明,灰色马尔柯夫模型更适用于随机波动性较大的数列预测问题。【结论】将灰色GM（1,1）模型和马尔柯夫链相结合用于苹果产量预测是可行的。[Objective] Based on the combination of grey system theory with Markov chain theory, the grey Markov model is established to forecast the apple yield of Shaanxi Province. [Method] Firstly a dynamic GM （1,1） model of fit is built according to the apple yield of Shaanxi Province from 1998 to 2007 to obtain the evolution trend and predominant value of apple yield. On this basis, the prediction result is modified by use of Markov chain theory. [Result] The example computed indicates that the apple yield of Shaanxi Province would achieve 7 697.1 thousands ton in 2008 and the grey Markov model is the most suitable for prediction with big fluctuation. [Conclusion] The combined use of grey GM （1,1） model and Markov chain method in the prediction of apple yield is feasible.

关 键 词：苹果产量 GM(1 1)模型 灰色马尔柯夫模型 

分 类 号：S661.1[农业科学—果树学]