关于巨灾债券定价模型的研究  

The Research on Catastrophe Bonds Pricing Model

作　　者：杨晔[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2009年第5期942-950,共9页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(06JC790030);中国博士后科学基金(20060390328)

摘　　要：巨灾债券的定价是巨灾债券的核心技术及难题。本文从两个方面来分析巨灾债券的定价:首先从规范学的角度来分析巨灾债券的定价,以金融衍生品的无套利定价方法确定巨灾债券的价格,即"巨灾债券价格应该为多少";其次,从实证学角度分析巨灾债券的定价,以利用精算学中的Wang变换和双因素变换模型为定价方法,分析巨灾债券的价格,即"巨灾债券价格是多少",通过对实际巨灾债券的价格实证分析得到:双因素模型能更好的拟合实际价差,对单一事件单一期限的巨灾债券,运用双因素模型得到较高的拟合优度。The pricing of CAT bonds is the core technique and problem in the current market. This paper does the pricing analysis based on financial derivative instruments method and actuarial science method as well. The first method shows the result on what the price should be. The other method shows the results on what the price being using Wang-Transform model and double factors model. And the results show that the double factors model has a better prediction on the pricing of CAT bonds.

关 键 词：巨灾债券 无套利定价 Wang变换定价 双因素模型 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]