基于信号学习的风险投资中止决策分析  

Termination Decision Analysis for Venture Capital based on Signal Learning

作　　者：顾婧[1] 周宗放[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《管理学报》2009年第10期1306-1312,共7页Chinese Journal of Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70671017);成都市科技计划项目资助(cdkj-07-03/04)

摘　　要：针对现有中止决策方法忽视风险项目发展过程中信息的影响,首先归纳分析了风险项目发展过程中的信息;然后,以风险投资家观察到的好(坏)信号作为二元学习信号,就好(坏)信号随项目发展存在的3种状态,从贝叶斯后验估计的角度提出了信号学习模型;进而依据蕴含了风险投资家风险态度的"心理阈值"确定外生的中止决策点;最后,进行了算例分析。The ability of making termination decision is an important index that influences on the long-term performance venture capital firms. Present termination decision methods neglect the information＇s effect in the process of venture project development. This paper induces and analyses the information during the venture project development process firstly; then chooses the good （bad） signal observed by venture capitalist as the binary learning signal and proposes signal learning model from the perspective of Bayesian posterior estimate considering three conditions that the good （bad） signal observed along with project development. The paper further studies the exogenous optimal ter- mination point according to venture capitalist＇s altitude to risk-taking and finally gives a corresponding example.

关 键 词：风险投资 中止决策 信号学习 后验概率 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理]