车人碰撞事故再现输入参数置信区间分析  

Input parameter confidence interval analysis for a car-pedestrian collision traffic accident

作　　者：柴象海[1] 金先龙[1,2] 张晓云[1] 侯心一[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学机械与动力工程学院,上海200240 [2]上海交通大学振动、冲击、噪声国家重点实验室,上海200240 [3]上海市公安局交通警察总队,上海200070

出　　处：《振动与冲击》2009年第10期174-178,共5页Journal of Vibration and Shock

基　　金：国家“八六三”高技术研究发展计划基金(2007AA11Z234);国家自然科学基金(50705058);教育部博士点基金(20070248113)资助

摘　　要：传统交通事故仿真根据经验选取仿真参数,通过参数修正反复调整模型,由此得到的仿真结果与真实事故过程存在很大差距,尤其是难以确定各输入参数取值区间分布对仿真结果的影响,使结果缺乏可信性和说服力。探讨了通过交通事故仿真与优化计算相集成对事故仿真结果进行可靠性分析,取得输入参数置信区间分布。通过车人碰撞交通事故实际案例,输入参数置信区间分析结果表明:在各置信区间内,事故再现结果可靠性及输出参数分布符合碰撞过程规律,能够真实反映输入参数的变化对再现结果的影响。Because a traditional traffic accident simulation selected simulation parameters according to experience,and revised repeatedly the simulation model through modifying parameters,the simulation results had very big difference from real accident process.Especially it was difficult to determine the effect of each input parameter interval on simulation result.Those caused the result to lack the credibility and the persuasive ability.Here,how to integrate the traffic accident simulation and the optimized computation into the accident simulation result to perform the reliability analysis and obtain the input parameter confidence interval distribution was discussed in detail.Through a car-pedestrian collision traffic accident actual case,the input parameter confidence interval analysis result indicated that in each confidence interval,the accident reappearance result reliability and the output parameter distribution conform to the collision process rule,and can reflect really the influence of the input parameter change on the reappearance result.

关 键 词：事故再现 数值仿真 仿真优化 可靠性分析 

分 类 号：U461[机械工程—车辆工程] TP391.91[交通运输工程—载运工具运用工程]