基于马尔可夫过程的逆向物流特征预测与分析  

Forecast and Analysis of Reverse Logistics Characters based on Markov Process Method

作　　者：沈雁[1,2] 聂清[2] 袁庆达[2] 杨晓雁[2] 

机构地区：[1]东华大学管理学院,上海200051 [2]上海对外贸易学院国际经贸学院,上海200336

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2009年第11期157-160,共4页East China Economic Management

基　　金：上海对外贸易学院课程建设项目(5Z1207);上海外贸学院国际物流与供应链管理学科建设项目(A-3201-09-002)

摘　　要：文章将逆向物流系统近似地看作为一个具有吸收态的马尔可夫过程,运用马尔可夫过程原理预测和分析了逆向物流系统中,系统从原始状态经过若干步转移后,回收物料到达各节点的概率;逆向供应链上某一节点处的回收物料进入吸收态的概率;回收物料从逆向供应链的某节点进入该系统,在各节点停留的平均时间和物料最终被系统吸收所需的平均时间。The reverse logistics system is considered as a Markov process with absorbable status. The following characters have been forecasted and analyzed：the probability of returned materials reach certain node after several steps of transfer from the original status; the probability of materials in certain node to be absorbed by the system; the average time that materials stop at certain node and the time that materials are absorbed by the system.

关 键 词：逆向物流 马尔可夫过程 预测 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]