基于人口变化的义务教育人口预测模型  

Prediction model of compulsory education population based on population change

作　　者：李娜[1] 李继怀[2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁科技大学理学院,辽宁鞍山114051 [2]辽宁科技大学高教研究室,辽宁鞍山114051

出　　处：《辽宁科技大学学报》2009年第6期591-595,共5页Journal of University of Science and Technology Liaoning

基　　金：辽宁省"十一五"教育科学规划项目(JG08DB070)

摘　　要：以偏微分方程理论为基础,综合运用机理分析和数据拟合的一般原理分别建立了城市、城镇、乡村人口分布和密度函数的模型,最终建立了义务教育阶段在校生人数的预测模型。基于该模型利用拟合优度检验法,预测了中国义务教育阶段的城市、城镇、乡村未来10年各年的人口数量,并对中国义务教育阶段人口变换的中短期发展趋势做出了预测。直至2009年我国义务教育阶段在校生人数不断减少,从2010年全国实行全面义务教育的基础上,义务教育阶段的人数又开始逐渐增长,2020年达到12 536.57万人基本趋于平稳状态。Based on the theory of partial differential equations,by using the general principles of mechanism analysis and data fitting,the model of population distribution and density function in cities,towns and contrysides was established,which eventually establish the prediction models of prediting the number of compulsory education students at school.Based on the model and by using goodness of fit test to predict the number of people each year over the next 10 years at the stage oflompulsory education in China＇s cities,towns,villages the short-term population trends of population change at the stage of China compulsory education were predicted.The number of students at school steadily decreased till2009;On the basis of overal implementation of a comprehensive compulsory education in 2010,the number of compulsory education students began to grow again;in 2020 it will rearch the number of 125.3657 million people which will be basically in the state of stability.

关 键 词：人口 义务教育 预测模型 

分 类 号：G522.3[文化科学—教育学] C924.2[文化科学—教育技术学]