运用ARIMA模型对我国人均卫生费用的预测  

APPLICATION OF THE ARIMA MODEL ON FORECAST THE PER CAPITA HEALTH EXPENDITURE OF OUR COUNTRY

作　　者：赵亮[1] 吴艳乔[2] 雷海科[1] 张俊清[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西公共卫生学院,成都610041 [2]四川大学华西妇女儿童医院

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2010年第3期410-412,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：[目的]通过拟合ARIMA模型对我国人均卫生费用进行预测,为卫生部门决策提供依据。[方法]采用SAS分析系统的时间序列模块,找出合适的ARIMA模型进行预测评价。[结果]通过对1978～2006年的人均卫生费用的数据拟合发现此费用处于增长趋势。[结论]人均卫生费用随着时间而增长,卫生部门需合理控制人均卫生费用。[Objective] By fitting ARIMA model to forecast per capita health expenditure of our country,we will provide the basis for the health departments＇ decision making.[Methods] Used SAS analysis system＇s time series module to identify suitable ARIMA model for prediction and evaluation.[Results] Through the per capita health expenditure＇s data from1978 to 2006,discovered this expenditure in the growth movement.[Conclusion] Per capita health expenditure grows along with the time,and the health departments need control the per capita health expenditure of our country.

关 键 词：ARIMA模型 人均卫生费用 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R19[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]