单变量灰色预测模型在煤矿开采沉降预测中的对比分析  

Comparative Analysis of Single Variable Grey Prediction Model in Coal Mining Settlement Prediction

作　　者：刘雅君[1] 罗文柯[2,3] 唐如龙 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学基建外 [2]煤矿安全开采技术湖南省重点实验室,湘潭411201 [3]湖南科技大学能源与安全工程学院,湘潭411201 [4]邵阳市肖家冲煤矿,邵阳422002

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2010年第1期36-42,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(50774033);湖南省自然科学基金资助(06JJ2069);国家安全生产监督管理总局安全生产科技发展计划项目(08-203;HN08-19;06-394;HNMT10-05);湖南省教育科学"十一五"规划课题(XJY08BGD027);教育部科学技术研究项目(206100);湖南省教育厅资助科研项目(05A013)

摘　　要：以预测煤矿开采而引起的地表高程的损失为目的,通过灰色系统理论的建模、关联度分析和残差辨识,建立基于贫信息的传统GM(1,1)模型、GM(1,1)残差模型、时序残差GM(1,1)模型,又建立基于原始数据具有绝对误差的灰色CompertzⅠ和灰色LogisticⅠ模型与具有相对误差的灰色CompertzⅡ和灰色LogisticⅡ模型,并将其应用到金竹山矿业公司土珠煤矿的地表沉降量的实际预测分析中,对该矿2007年度1—10月的地表高程损失量进行灰色生成后,建立了7种灰色预测模型。根据其预测值的精度检验结果对比分析表明,所建立的7种模型均为一级(好)模型,且灰色CompertzIⅡ和灰色LogisticIⅡ模型远优于传统GM(1,1)模型,预测精度高,可靠性强,对煤矿开采的复垦规划有重要指导作用。For the purpose of predicting the loss of surface elevation caused by coal mining, the traditional poor-information-based GM （ 1,1 ） model, GM （ 1,1 ） residual model and timing residual GM （ 1,1 ） model were set up according to grey system modeling, correlation analysis and residual recognition. Meanwhile, the original-data-based grey CompertzI model with absolute error, the grey LogisticI model, and the grey CompertzlI model and grey LogisticII model that both have relative error were also set up. Then, these models were applied to the actual prediction analysis of subsidence value in Tuzhu Coal Mine of Jinzhushan and that the grey CompertzⅡ model and grey LogisticⅡ model, due to having a high prediction accuracy and reliability, are far superior to the traditional GM （ 1,1 ） model. They play an important role in the restoration planning of coal mining.

关 键 词：开采沉降 预测 GM(1 1) 残差 灰色 Compertz LOGISTIC 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TD173[矿业工程—矿山地质测量]