基于修正GM(1,1)模型对商品住宅价格预测  

The Forcast of the Price of Commercial Residence on Basis of the Modified GM(1,1)Model

作　　者：申志涛[1] 贾革续[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木水利学院,大连116024

出　　处：《价值工程》2010年第8期92-93,共2页Value Engineering

摘　　要：在金融危机下对中小城市商品住宅市场进行投资决策前,首先需要对其价格进行预测分析,文章采用修正后的GM(1,1)模型建立起商品住宅价格预测模型,选取安阳市商品住宅价格数据进行预测分析,在检验了模型精度的基础上,得出在当前金融危机下,由于国家刺激计划的作用以及金融危机的缓解,安阳的商品住宅价格呈现上升的趋势,其投资市场仍然具有很大的发展潜力的结论。Forecasting analysis of the price is carried out before investment decision in the market of commercial residential building in the small and medium-sized cities during the financial crisis. A forecasting model is built by the modified GM （1,1） and the forcasting model is applied to data on the price of commercial residential building from the city of Anyang after checking out the model＇ s accuracy. The conclusion is that due to the country＇ s stimulus plan＇ s impact and the crisis＇ s alleviation, the trend of the city＇ s price of commercial residential building will be on the rise, and its investment market has great development potential.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 函数变换法 金融危机 商品住宅价格 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]